The areas experiencing the largest sales activity are in the West Valley - where the newer towns of Surprise, El Mirage and Goodyear are located. Apparently sellers’s willingness to drop prices has at last been met with some interest by buyers. The older, more established communities of Glendale, Peoria and Avondale have seen more price stability and lower sales volume.

Not everybody thinks so. There are those who believe that the bottom of the real estate market is either here, or will be here soon. The optimists, on whose side Topretirements rests, believe that the mismatch between inventories (still way too high), demand (pathetic), and prices (still too high in spite of very big reductions in some markets) will eventually be resolved and the real estate market will return to equilibrium. The pessimists believe that news like the 32% decline in the median price of existing condos in the Bradenton-Sarasota market from March 2007 to March 2008 will continue well into the future, fueled by factors like baby boomers fleeing the suburbs for low tax sunbelt retirements.

In the meantime for any optimists out there, there are deals to be had. A number of developers are offering incentives, which include: guaranteed buy-backs, help selling your existing home (Erickson Communities), special prices, reduced interest rates (Lennar Corp.), and lots of “frees” (landscaping, granite countertops, finished basements, etc.). Shea Homes says they won’t offer incentives, but will offer lower no-haggle prices (e.,g.; like Saturn automobiles). Sellers of existing homes, faced with pages and pages of competition, know that they have to offer a deal to rise to the point of being noticed, so there are plenty of deals to be had there too. As always, cash buyers who are ready to sign a contract will get a better deal than a window shopping customer who needs a mortgage.

Of course there is always the difference between a come-on and real deal. So if you are tempted by an incentive, analyze it carefully to find out its real benefit (or get your lawyer or financial advisor to help). Go out and visit the property and ask questions of the neighbors and HOA (Home Owners Association). The bold and the brave can easily find deals - if they do their due diligence and are willing to be patient. Then time can tell if their instincts were correct or not.

The Journal’s article was excerpted from a book by Andrew Blechman called “Leisureville: Adventures in America’s Retirement Utopias“. In it Mr. Blechman wonders why a couple that he is friends with have decided to move to The Villages, the giant active adult community of 75,000 souls near Ocala, Florida. He describes in great detail what The Villages is all about - endless activity at a reasonable price in pretty good weather. In our opinion he somewhat condescending toward The Villages, and a bit incredulous that his friends, Dave and Betsy Anderson, would really like such a place. Mostly, he seems saddened that they are leaving his northeastern town which needs good citizens and neighbors like his friends. Sadly enough, the situation laid out by Mr. Blechman will no doubt be played out millions of times in the years to come, as northerners desert their long term communities for a place in the sun. Churches, charities, and community infrastructure will be collateral damage as baby boomers migrate south.

Today’s Times offered up a collection of articles on various retirement topics. “Overseas, A Changing Equation” highlights the problems facing American’s who hope to retire overseas. The first and biggest problem is the almighty dollar, which has been more than a bit humbled lately. So forget about a European retirement, the dollar is worth 50% less than now than a decade ago. Even places like Costa Rica have gotten more expensive. Panama, which pegs its currency to the dollar, is popular for that reason. Other experts give the standard (and often ignored) advice that retiring abroad is a decision that should not be taken lightly. As John McCann said in the article: “If you’re not prepared to spend years researching different countries, you’re not ready to retire overseas.”

Another Times article profiles the experiences of people like Joan and Bob Johnson, who moved to downtown Portland, Oregon from a smaller city. They just loved the vibrant atmosphere, great medical care, and impromptu range of cultural opportunities. The urban experience does not come without its share of surprises, however, like crime and rundown neighborhoods. Several retirees in the article were using a strategy of buying/renting in a transitional neighborhood as a way of living in an interesting part of the downtown without going off the cost scale.

The Times special Retirement Section also had interesting articles on making your money last, what to call yourself in retirement (not retired!), internships for baby boomers, and, in the cover piece, what companies are doing to retain their valued baby boomer retirees.

Other links:
Is an Active Adult Community Right for You?
The Villages: The Definition of a Hyper-Active Community
Retirement Buyers Guide to Costa Rica

Peachtree City is located about 25 miles south of Atlanta. Along with its 90 miles of golf cart paths it has 3 golf courses, where at least some carts get driven on terra familia. It has four separate villages: Aberdeen, Braelinn, Glenloch and Kedron. Each of the villages has its own shopping areas, recreational facilities, and elementary schools. The community also boasts four swimming pools, a soccer complex, tennis center, fields for just about every sport imaginable, aquatic center, and even a BMX track. Neighbors from other towns come to enjoy cultural events at its 2,500-seat amphitheater. This is a master planned community available to people of all ages, so there is not only a senior center (The Gathering Place) but also a teen center, along with numerous parks and playgrounds. Current population is about 35,000. Peachtree City has won numerous community awards, including a feature in the Spring 2008 New York Times Real Estate Magazine.

Active adult communities are for many people, while others will be happier living in the traditional type of community. Topretirements has just written a “Tips and Picks” article, “Is an Active Adult Community Right for You”, that uses quotes from actual people to try to pinpoint the pluses and minuses of active adult communities, so as to help others figure out what their retirement living decision should be.

The people who say that they love living in their active adult communities are attracted for about 5 basic reasons:

Meanwhile, the people who hate the thought of living in active adult communities have plenty to say about why they feel that way.

Finally, many people had good advice for others when it comes to deciding whether or not to live in an active adult community. We liked this quote a lot: “From my observations 55+ communities do indeed offer a great deal - but that is not to say they are for everyone - there are tradeoffs. It seems that more particular/meticulous persons do a bit better in these environs - and those that take advantage of the multitude of activities, not the armchair quarterbacks, are usually more pleased.”

To see the full Tips and Picks article go to Active Adult Communities

The “U” stands for uncompromising, so U-Boomers are folks who intend to maintain their lofty lifestyle aspirations - but who won’t necessarily have the financial means to execute on those dreams. The article is a call to action for baby boomer marketers. U-Boomers are such a big and important group that these marketers have to figure out creative ways to meet boomer demands — without going beyond the resources available to them. This group is expected to represent 25% of total U.S. consumption by 2015.

For marketers of active adult communities, that will be a challenge. Part of the solution is in positioning communities so they deliver high value and prestige without pricing the product out of reach. Maybe that means inexpensive hiking and biking trails instead of ultra-expensive golf courses. Or intimate clubhouses instead of monstrous edifices. A la carte services instead of the buffet approach. Environmentally sustainable communities that not only keep energy expenses down, but make U-Boomers feel like they are fashionable and responsible. Or, co-housing communities that use the community to deliver services at a reduced cost.

From all we here about the poor state of retirement preparation that exists among baby boomers, there certainly seems to be something to this demographic. We can’t wait to see which over 55 developers try to tackle it - and how they do it.

We recently came across some examples of green communities, which is encouraging. Shea Homes, a large national home builder, has announced that environmentally friendly homes will be the focus of some of its new developments in Florida and other sun belt states. These homes will be so-called “eco-friendly”, and will have energy saving features such as solar attic fans, motion-sensor triggered lighting, energy-efficient windows and appliances, and garages with electric-vehicle charging stations. Some materials like insulation will be recycled. According to a report in Off the Grid, Shea says it has “focused on small, incremental green features that will add up to important energy savings.”

Meanwhile other developments are getting on the environmental, or green, bandwagon as well. Some retirement homes being built for the military in San Antonio feature solar hot water heaters. A retirement community builder in Maine, Sea Coast Management Co., has offered incentives to install solar water heaters as well as a Toyota Prius to home buyers.

Cohousing communities tend to be at the vanguard of green retirement communities. Although these communities might be a touch too new age for many people, they are almost always interested in preserving the environment, as well as sharing common facilities and ongoing connections with neighbors. These intentional neighborhoods, created and managed by residents, offer an innovative solution to today’s environmental and social challenges. Here is a link to a directory of co-housing communities.

How green is green? As Carol Gulyas wrote at Topretirements last year in “Looking for Green Retirement Communities“, it is important to evaluate “eco”, “green”, and “environmentally sustainability” claims carefully and sceptically. Many active adult community builders talk about green, but the reality is not always up to the promise. She suggests that you learn more about what it really means to be environmentally friendly - and then ask questions of builders to be sure. Of course part of the equation is how much baby boomers will pay for when it comes to the environment. That’s because for now anyway, being green takes some green.

Meanwhile industry pundits had plenty of theories about what this all means, and above all, when it will get better. One of the most interesting we read was by Barry Ritholz. His point is that until illogical sellers get the picture that there is too much inventory out there and reduce their prices, the market will be soft.

Another provider of housing data ran into flack this week over the positive way it slanted its reporting of its February numbers. The NAR (National Association of Realtors) chose to highlight sales changes from January to February, instead of the more traditional year to year comparisons (thus eliminating seasonality). The effect was to mask the declines that actually existed year to year - although sales increased 3% from January, they were 24% behind the year ago period.

Other pundits wonder when the market will turn around - can the end of the bad news be near?

The study, “Profile of the 50+ Housing Market”, points out that more than 85 million people will be 55+ by 2014. Many will be buying in homes specifically built for 55+ buyers, and these won’t be all that small - the average home will still have more than 2 bedrooms and over 2,000 square feet for living. Yards and other maintenance-requiring items will be downsized, however.

The study found at least one difference between homes built in age restricted communities vs. those for 55+ buyers in general. Homes in restricted communities are less likely to have specialty rooms like dens, offices, or libraries.

Multiple reports in the press agree that buyers in the 55+ market are stronger prospects and thus less affected by the current real estate slump than other home buyers. Boomers tend to have more equity in their homes as well as other substantial assets. Even if they have to sell their existing home for less than it was worth 2 years ago, they can still be comfortable buying a new home. Few need to take out a mortgage or qualify for financing. Most plan on buying a better quality home than they have now.

A recent article in the Arizona Star backs up the conclusion that the market for active adult communities is in much better shape than the overall housing market. Insiders quoted there agree that retiring baby boomers are ready to move and they have the resources to make that happen. There is pent up demand for these homes, with the activities and amenities found in these new communities often more important than the homes themselves. More than half of those planning to buy in 55+ communities plan to purchase a home in the same county as where they currently live.

Leading the charge has been The Villages, the active adult behemoth south of Ocala, FL. Anybody who has been watching golf on network television lately has been exposed to their messages many times by now. In Topretirements’ experience, this is the first time that a retirement community has gone to national television to look for prospects. They also seem to have a big presence at some of the baby boomer websites such as eons.com. (we are waiting for them to see the light and advertise at Topretirements!)

Many other active adult communities are relying on the most successful new media, paid search. Go to any web page having to do with retirement communities or active adult communities, and you will see those nice little ads on the side from Google, Yahoo, and MSN. Lake Ashton, Robson, and Bellavita are some of the leading advertisers we have seen using this media.

The most prolific advertiser of them all is Erickson Communities. Not only do they seem to have an endless stream of press releases and ubiquitous newspapers, but they also have their own retirement TV channel - Retirement Living TV.

Other advertisers are relying on old standbys like newspaper ads, billboards, and direct mail.

What does this all mean for you, the baby boomer who is looking for the right active adult or over 55 community? Other than being an interesting phenomenon, we think that all this new advertising says that active adult communities have arrived as a big business. It is also a statement that the big players are open for business, eager to court and attract you as a potential buyer. So it’s a good way for you to find out about the best places to retire, right from your armchair.

Here’s how to get information about how to advertise at Topretirements