Finding Opportunities in Slumping 55+ Communities Market

New home sales fell 8.5% in March, according to the Commerce Department. The vacancy rate for homes is at 2.9%, the highest level recorded since the Census Bureau started keeping track in 1956. Over 18 million U.S. homes were empty in this year’s first quarter. Sound like bad news?

Not everybody thinks so. There are those who believe that the bottom of the real estate market is either here, or will be here soon. The optimists, on whose side Topretirements rests, believe that the mismatch between inventories (still way too high), demand (pathetic), and prices (still too high in spite of very big reductions in some markets) will eventually be resolved and the real estate market will return to equilibrium. The pessimists believe that news like the 32% decline in the median price of existing condos in the Bradenton-Sarasota market from March 2007 to March 2008 will continue well into the future, fueled by factors like baby boomers fleeing the suburbs for low tax sunbelt retirements.

In the meantime for any optimists out there, there are deals to be had. A number of developers are offering incentives, which include: guaranteed buy-backs, help selling your existing home (Erickson Communities), special prices, reduced interest rates (Lennar Corp.), and lots of “frees” (landscaping, granite countertops, finished basements, etc.). Shea Homes says they won’t offer incentives, but will offer lower no-haggle prices (e.,g.; like Saturn automobiles). Sellers of existing homes, faced with pages and pages of competition, know that they have to offer a deal to rise to the point of being noticed, so there are plenty of deals to be had there too. As always, cash buyers who are ready to sign a contract will get a better deal than a window shopping customer who needs a mortgage.

Of course there is always the difference between a come-on and real deal. So if you are tempted by an incentive, analyze it carefully to find out its real benefit (or get your lawyer or financial advisor to help). Go out and visit the property and ask questions of the neighbors and HOA (Home Owners Association). The bold and the brave can easily find deals - if they do their due diligence and are willing to be patient. Then time can tell if their instincts were correct or not.

Retirement Communities are Focus of WSJ, NY Times Features

April 21 - You know there is a movement afoot when both the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times offer up features on retirement communities during the same weekend.

The Journal’s article was excerpted from a book by Andrew Blechman called “Leisureville: Adventures in America’s Retirement Utopias“. In it Mr. Blechman wonders why a couple that he is friends with have decided to move to The Villages, the giant active adult community of 75,000 souls near Ocala, Florida. He describes in great detail what The Villages is all about - endless activity at a reasonable price in pretty good weather. In our opinion he somewhat condescending toward The Villages, and a bit incredulous that his friends, Dave and Betsy Anderson, would really like such a place. Mostly, he seems saddened that they are leaving his northeastern town which needs good citizens and neighbors like his friends. Sadly enough, the situation laid out by Mr. Blechman will no doubt be played out millions of times in the years to come, as northerners desert their long term communities for a place in the sun. Churches, charities, and community infrastructure will be collateral damage as baby boomers migrate south.

Today’s Times offered up a collection of articles on various retirement topics. “Overseas, A Changing Equation” highlights the problems facing American’s who hope to retire overseas. The first and biggest problem is the almighty dollar, which has been more than a bit humbled lately. So forget about a European retirement, the dollar is worth 50% less than now than a decade ago. Even places like Costa Rica have gotten more expensive. Panama, which pegs its currency to the dollar, is popular for that reason. Other experts give the standard (and often ignored) advice that retiring abroad is a decision that should not be taken lightly. As John McCann said in the article: “If you’re not prepared to spend years researching different countries, you’re not ready to retire overseas.”

Another Times article profiles the experiences of people like Joan and Bob Johnson, who moved to downtown Portland, Oregon from a smaller city. They just loved the vibrant atmosphere, great medical care, and impromptu range of cultural opportunities. The urban experience does not come without its share of surprises, however, like crime and rundown neighborhoods. Several retirees in the article were using a strategy of buying/renting in a transitional neighborhood as a way of living in an interesting part of the downtown without going off the cost scale.

The Times special Retirement Section also had interesting articles on making your money last, what to call yourself in retirement (not retired!), internships for baby boomers, and, in the cover piece, what companies are doing to retain their valued baby boomer retirees.

Other links:
Is an Active Adult Community Right for You?
The Villages: The Definition of a Hyper-Active Community
Retirement Buyers Guide to Costa Rica

Golf Cart Living in Peachtree City

April 15 — Imagine a town where a surprising number of residents have 2 golf carts - and only 1 car. Where the supermarket and high school have special golf cart parking lots. And where 72 of the 80 motor vehicles reported stolen last year were golf carts. That’s Peachtree City, Georgia, one of America’s largest planned communities -a perfect active adult community for many.

Peachtree City is located about 25 miles south of Atlanta. Along with its 90 miles of golf cart paths it has 3 golf courses, where at least some carts get driven on terra familia. It has four separate villages: Aberdeen, Braelinn, Glenloch and Kedron. Each of the villages has its own shopping areas, recreational facilities, and elementary schools. The community also boasts four swimming pools, a soccer complex, tennis center, fields for just about every sport imaginable, aquatic center, and even a BMX track. Neighbors from other towns come to enjoy cultural events at its 2,500-seat amphitheater. This is a master planned community available to people of all ages, so there is not only a senior center (The Gathering Place) but also a teen center, along with numerous parks and playgrounds. Current population is about 35,000. Peachtree City has won numerous community awards, including a feature in the Spring 2008 New York Times Real Estate Magazine.

Are You Active Adult Community Material?

April 9 — For Sequoya, moving into a 55+ community in Yuma was “… boy what a mistake!” Similarly, Kimojimo “tried (a community in FL), lasted 9 months, and couldn’t WAIT to get out!” Yet Bill55, who worked for years for Del Webb, “… met countless people who had no intention of living in an adult community. But for one reason or another they decided to give it a shot and I would see them around the community day after day taking part in all sorts of activities. At least 95% of those people said that moving there was the best decision of their lives!”

Active adult communities are for many people, while others will be happier living in the traditional type of community. Topretirements has just written a “Tips and Picks” article, “Is an Active Adult Community Right for You”, that uses quotes from actual people to try to pinpoint the pluses and minuses of active adult communities, so as to help others figure out what their retirement living decision should be.

The people who say that they love living in their active adult communities are attracted for about 5 basic reasons:

Meanwhile, the people who hate the thought of living in active adult communities have plenty to say about why they feel that way.

Finally, many people had good advice for others when it comes to deciding whether or not to live in an active adult community. We liked this quote a lot: “From my observations 55+ communities do indeed offer a great deal - but that is not to say they are for everyone - there are tradeoffs. It seems that more particular/meticulous persons do a bit better in these environs - and those that take advantage of the multitude of activities, not the armchair quarterbacks, are usually more pleased.”

To see the full Tips and Picks article go to Active Adult Communities

Retirement Communities Prepare for U-Boomer Invasion

April 5 — You’ve heard of the U(na)-Bomber and U-2 the rock group. Now get ready for another U, the U-Boomers. Forbes Magazine recently published an article that differentiates among different sub-sets of baby boomers. The U-Boomers are a huge segment that constitutes about 24 million of the 76 or so million baby boomers out there.

The “U” stands for uncompromising, so U-Boomers are folks who intend to maintain their lofty lifestyle aspirations - but who won’t necessarily have the financial means to execute on those dreams. The article is a call to action for baby boomer marketers. U-Boomers are such a big and important group that these marketers have to figure out creative ways to meet boomer demands — without going beyond the resources available to them. This group is expected to represent 25% of total U.S. consumption by 2015.

For marketers of active adult communities, that will be a challenge. Part of the solution is in positioning communities so they deliver high value and prestige without pricing the product out of reach. Maybe that means inexpensive hiking and biking trails instead of ultra-expensive golf courses. Or intimate clubhouses instead of monstrous edifices. A la carte services instead of the buffet approach. Environmentally sustainable communities that not only keep energy expenses down, but make U-Boomers feel like they are fashionable and responsible. Or, co-housing communities that use the community to deliver services at a reduced cost.

From all we here about the poor state of retirement preparation that exists among baby boomers, there certainly seems to be something to this demographic. We can’t wait to see which over 55 developers try to tackle it - and how they do it.