September 8, 2021 — The latest Trustees report for Social Security shows that the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2020 recession are affecting the future of this popular program, but no one is certain exactly how that will play out. One thing the report does lay out is that the Trust Fund will become exhausted in 2033, one year earlier than projected last year.
Given the unprecedented level of uncertainty, the Trustees say there is no consensus on what the lasting effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the long-term experience might be, if any.
Based on best estimates, the 2021 reports show:
• The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund, which pays retirement and survivors benefits, will be able to pay scheduled benefits on a timely basis until 2033, one year earlier than reported last year. At that time, the fund’s reserves will become depleted and continuing tax income will be sufficient to pay 76 percent of scheduled benefits.
• The Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund, which pays disability benefits, will be able to pay scheduled benefits until 2057, 8 years earlier than in last year’s report. At that time, the fund’s reserves will become depleted and continuing tax income will be sufficient to pay 91 percent of scheduled benefits.
So many conflicting currents
The Covid pandemic caused millions of people to lose their jobs, meaning they did not pay into the Social Security system. Many people became disabled, which increased payouts by the Disability Trust Fund. On the other hand, over 650,000 people have died from the virus, so those people will not be around to collect their Social Security (although any survivors will). Immigration numbers are down, which means fewer people are paying into the system. Fertility rates declined in this period of uncertainty, which will have long term effects on the size of the workforce supporting retirees. How all of these factors play out, no one is sure.
Bottom line for lawmakers – do something!
The Trustees report finishes with this stern warning: “Lawmakers have many policy options that would reduce or eliminate the long-term financing shortfalls in Social Security and Medicare. Lawmakers should address these financial challenges as soon as possible. Taking action sooner rather than later will permit consideration of a broader range of solutions and provide more time to phase in changes so that the public has adequate time to prepare.” We couldn’t agree more – quit fighting silly political battles and do something about the ticking time bomb that is going to blow up Social Security!
For further reading:
Summary of the Trustees Report
Comments? If you were in charge, what would you do to save Social Security?
Posted by Admin on September 7th, 2021