Big Beautiful Bill Ripples. Medicare Part A Goes Bust 12 Years Earlier
Category: Medicare
Feb. 28, 2026 –The Medicare Hospital Insurance (Part A) trust fund is now projected to be depleted by 2040, 12 years earlier than the Congressional Budget Office projected just last year. Experts at KFF says that the tax cuts in the “Big Beautiful Bill” are behind this giant change. This does not mean Medicare runs out of money completely. Instead, incoming payroll taxes will likely cover about 89% of benefits, meaning partial payments are likely if Congress does not act.
- Projected Exhaustion Dates: The 2024 Medicare Trustees report estimated insolvency by 2036. The Congressional Budget Office, on the other hand, estimated a few years ago that Part A reserves would be exhausted by 2052. A new report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) as of Feb 2026 suggest the fund could be exhausted by 2040 due to recent legislative changes – 12 years earlier than its prediction just a year ago.
- What It Means: The trust fund (Part A) pays for hospital stays, skilled nursing, and hospice. If the fund runs out, the program will not stop, but it will only be able to pay approximately 89% of costs, according to the 2024 report.
- Parts B and D: Medicare Parts B (medical insurance) and D (prescription drugs) are funded differently and do not face the same depletion, though they are subject to rising premiums and general revenue costs.
Historically, Congress has acted to prevent the Medicare trust fund from becoming fully insolvent before the deadline
Comments on "Big Beautiful Bill Ripples. Medicare Part A Goes Bust 12 Years Earlier"
pa kettle says:
From the White House March 11, 2025:
“The Trump Administration will not cut Social Security, Medicare, or Medicaid benefits. President Trump himself has said it (over and over and over again).” https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/03/fact-check-president-trump-will-always-protect-social-security-medicare/
Meanwhile America’s billionaire population has increased from 814 to 935 and their cumulative wealth increased 22% to $8.2 trillion since January 2025. Musk is $308 billion richer, Zuckerberg is $2.4 billion richer and Bezos is $1 billion richer. Musk, Zuckerberg and Bezos were all in the first row at the 2025 inauguration. Billionaires at Trump’s inauguration were worth a combined $1.35 trillion. Trump is now worth $6.7 billion up $1.4 billion from a year ago. Trump’s cabinet was worth $7.5 billion in 2025. For those that don’t remember the inauguration was moved indoors due to weather, the irony of the average Trump supporter being left out in the cold is fitting.
Rufus says:
I thank God for America and Americas billionaires. For the most part they are the movers and shakers, the innovators that make even the lower middle class rich compared to most of the rest of the world. Oh by the way; Musk, Zuckerberg and the majority of the tech giants were no friends of President Trump a mere 6 years ago. If I explained why, my post would probably be deleted. Happy Trails! Rufus
Rufus says:
How ironic ! After posting my above thought I read an article stating that the horrible billionaire Elon Musk has offered to pay the salaries of the TSA agents until the Democrats end the shutdown. Not sure if that is allowed but I am sure he'd do it if it is. Rufus
Mike says:
The movers and shakers have won again! Cutting Medicare solvency by 12 years is just another shameless act of hypocrisy by this Administration. Despite all President Trump’s promises not to touch Medicare, Social Security and Medicaid the OBBBA, among other Administration actions, takes a wrecking ball to programs that benefits tens of millions of ordinary Americans to make the already obscenely rich richer. The GOP continues to get people to vote against their own best interests.
Rufus, we have found common ground in finding Musk a horrible person. From his one man attempt to create a super race in his image(14 children with 4 women, only one was his wife), to his vile and hate filled X platform to his purchase of the 2024 election that allowed his access to our personal information, his money allowed his hostile takeover of our government. His filing of false claims to be reimbursed by taxpayers, violation of investor financial regulations, false applications to receive tax credits, bribing Chinese officials and receiving kickbacks, consumer protection offenses, safety violations related to his cars, accounting fraud, environmental and air pollution violations, wage and workplace safety violations add to his horrible legacy. And don’t forget his complicity in the ELECTRIC CAR MANDATE!
I hope he does pay TSA workers, it would be a small fraction of what he owes America since immigrating here. The $44 weekly payroll would amount to 0.006% of his total worth or 0.115% of the $38 billion he has received in taxpayer funded contracts or 1.26% of the $3.5 billion he has received in taxpayer money through 123 subsidies, grants tax credits or rebates and training reimbursements. Maybe there wouldn’t be a TSA funding issue or Medicare, Social Security and Medicaid insolvency if Tesla didn’t have a 0.4% Federal tax rate and Musk’s tax rate wasn’t 1.51% of his net worth. One last way to pay TSA would be to have Trump quit playing golf at taxpayers expense, he has played 101 times out of 421 days since returning to office at an estimated cost $141,400,000. That’s nearly enough to cover TSA payroll since the shutdown began. In 2016 TSA was getting paid but faced staffing shortages and DJT tweeted "While our wonderful president was out playing golf all day, the TSA is falling apart, just like our government! Airports a total disaster!”
I wouldn’t hold my breath for TSA payment though, Musk has a long history of under delivering on his promises such as the $2 trillion in waste, fraud and abuse he vowed to find and the resulting $5000 DOGE rebate check Trump promised or the extra benefits we would see from eliminating fraud in the SS system. Musk's quote from 2025 about increased benefits: “will be proven out to be true,” saying “let the record show that I said this. He also promised Tesla robotaxis by 2020, humans on Mars by 2024, trips around the moon by 2018, zero new cases of Covid by April 2020, fully self driving cars and autonomous coast to coast driving. Still waiting on all.
Lastly every week since the shutdown Democrats have introduced S.4127 to fully fund TSA and the rest of DHS except for ICE and Border Patrol but Republicans have blocked it. GOP concern for public safety, convenience and interest in workers livelihoods has its limits.
Mike says:
Correction TSA pay roll is not $44, it is $44 million
PAUL METZGER says:
The comments sections are so toxic. Every topic and conversation is just twisted by the left and the right until it's just a passive-aggesive fight between grown up kids.
Mike says:
The OBBBA saved me a whopping $1445 in Federal taxes this year due to the additional senior deduction The total over the four years of additional senior deductions we will save $5780. The first year of Social Security insolvency will cut our household income by $10,000 along with what ever reductions happen with Medicare 12 years earlier than needed. Whatta deal! Can’t wait for OBBBA 2.0.
As an independent voter, who hasn't voted for either major party in decades I said the GOP can get people to vote against their own best interest. It wasn't meant to be toxic, it's what I have watched happen over my lifetime. How did I twist the conversation?
A couple reasons why I think this way. First, Republicans have promised economic miracles will happen for everyone if we deregulate business and cut taxes on the rich. It has been decades and I’m still waiting for those miracles while the divide between rich and poor has never been greater and corporations make record profits. Second, gutting of programs that help the voters that elect Republicans. April 1 2026 Trump said: “It’s not possible for us to take care of day care, Medicaid, Medicare, all these individual things. They can do it on a state basis. We have to take care of one thing: military protection”. The White House wants to increase military spending to $1.5 trillion, a 40% increase.
A list of program cuts in the 2027 proposed White House budget:
$510 million – Grants for farmers and agricultural research?
$82 million – Loans for rural small businesses (Fully eliminated)
?$61 million – Support for farmers and food markets (Fully eliminated)?
$240 million – School meals and food education for children abroad (Fully eliminated)?
$659 million – Community building grants?
$47 million – Support for minority-owned businesses (Fully eliminated)?
$449 million – Economic development grants for communities?
$1.6 billion – Weather forecasting, fisheries, and coastal protection (NOAA)
?$993 million – Scientific research and technology standards?
$150 million – Support for American exports and trade?
$2.2 billion – Broadband and internet access programs?
$8.5 billion – Funding for public schools?
$1.5 billion – Vocational training and adult education (Fully eliminated)?
$2.7 billion – College access and higher education support?
$15.2 billion – Roads, bridges, and infrastructure projects?
$1.1 billion – Home energy efficiency and clean energy programs (Fully eliminated)
?$1.1 billion – Scientific research funding?
$386 million – Environmental cleanup programs?
$150 million – Cutting-edge clean energy research?
$4 billion – Help paying home heating and cooling bills for low-income families (Fully eliminated)?
$768 million – Refugee resettlement assistance?
$819 million – Care and shelter for migrant children?
$775 million – Local anti-poverty programs (Fully eliminated)?
$5 billion – Public health programs, mental health services, and disease prevention?
$5 billion – Medical research (NIH)?
$129 million – Healthcare quality and safety research?
$356 million – Emergency preparedness and disaster response?
$1.3 billion – FEMA community disaster preparedness grants?
$707 million – Cybersecurity protection for critical infrastructure?
$52 million – Airport and transportation security?
$40 million – Protection against chemical and biological weapons threats?
$53 million – Funding for homeland security operations?
$3.3 billion – Community development block grants for local neighborhoods (Fully eliminated)? $1.3 billion – Affordable housing construction grants (Fully eliminated)?
$393 million – Programs to reduce homelessness?
$529 million – Housing assistance for people living with HIV/AIDS (Fully eliminated)?
$489 million – Housing and services for Native American communities?
$50 million – Grants to help communities build more housing (Fully eliminated)?
$60 million – Enforcement of fair housing and anti-discrimination laws?
$58 million – Homebuyer and renter counseling services (Fully eliminated)?
$45 million – Renewable energy development programs (Fully eliminated)?
$1.7 billion – Grants for local law enforcement and public safety?
$20 million – Civil rights mediation and legal access programs (Fully eliminated)?
$1.6 billion – Job training for at-risk youth (Fully eliminated)
?$395 million – Jobs program for low-income seniors (Fully eliminated)?
$234 million – Worker safety and labor protection programs?
$101 million – Enforcement of equal pay and workplace anti-discrimination laws?
$46 million – Programs to combat child labor and forced labor abroad?
$2 billion – International humanitarian aid?$
1.2 billion – Food aid for hungry families abroad (Fully eliminated)?
$4.3 billion – Global health and disease prevention programs?
$2.7 billion – Funding for the United Nations and international partnerships?
$642 million – International economic and treasury programs?
$315 million – Democracy and anti-corruption programs abroad?
$486 million – Grants for public transit projects?$4.2 billion – Electric vehicle charging infrastructure?$372 million – Airline service for rural and small communities?
$145 million – Grants for sustainable and equitable infrastructure?
$204 million – Loans and investment for underserved communities
?$1.4 billion – IRS taxpayer services and enforcement?
$100 million – Air pollution monitoring and reduction programs (Fully eliminated)?
$1 billion – EPA grants to states for environmental protection?
$2.5 billion – Clean drinking water and wastewater infrastructure funds?
$90 million – Grants to reduce diesel pollution (Fully eliminated)
?$3.4 billion – NASA space and earth science research?
$297 million – NASA technology innovation programs?
$1.1 billion – International Space Station operations?
$143 million – STEM education programs?
$309 million – Small business development and entrepreneurship programs?
$170 million – Small Business Administration operations?
$158 million – Loans for small businesses
Daryl says:
Mike, don't you feel like you're trying to teach bulls to sing? I remember witnessing too many school time scenarios just like this. While you're earnestly presenting your facts, and data, and dates and dollars, they are busy taping a "kick me" sign to your back. I always appreciate your research, but save yourself first and start prepping for when the grid goes down or Armageddon, whichever happens first.