Will This Recession Put Out the FIRE Movement?

April 7, 2020 – The FIRE Movement, Financial Independence Retire Early, got a huge boost from the roaring stock market from 2019 through Feb. 2020. People who had been cutting way back on their expenses and investing that extra money saw their portfolios go way up. For that matter, anybody with a 401(k) or retirement portfolio was feeling pretty good. Many young people in their 40s and 30s even “hit their number”, quit their jobs and planned to live on their savings and non-traditional income sources, such as side gigs or rental income. Then the coronavirus hit, throwing a bucket of cold water on FIRE flames.

In just a few weeks during March stocks were down as much 40%. While that would not be fatal for a person with 20 or more working years or who did not have a big equity position, it would be devastating for someone who based their retirement on a booming stock market. Not only would they have less money to take out of their portfolio to live on each year, but they also wouldn’t have the steady income of a job to help them rebuild those savings. What’s more, studies show that the longer someone is out of the job market, the harder it is for someone with to yesterday’s skills to re-enter it. Folks who built their dream on renting out an Airbnb or rental property are probably seeing their revenues go to zero in 2020, while expenses continue.